Knowing when to buy or sell property has always been a difficult decision, but the question seems particularly crucial now
Keep up to speed at a glance with the Top 10 daily stories
(Bloomberg) — Some of the world’s biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, yet the path to a rebound won’t be a straight line.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy
Harry and Meghan Throw the Gauntlet to William and Kate
The Harry and Meghan Show Is a Royal Knockout
Caroline Ellison Hires SEC’s Former Top Crypto Cop for FTX probe
Twitter Sued for Refusing to Pay for Two Private Jet Charters
Amid recent optimism that inflation has peaked — and that the Federal Reserve could soon start to change its tone — 71% of respondents in a Bloomberg News survey expect equities to rise, versus 19% forecasting declines.
The informal survey of 134 fund managers incorporates the views of major investors including BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Amundi SA and was conducted between Nov. 29 and Dec. 7. It provides an insight into the big themes and hurdles they expect to be grappling with in 2023 after inflation, the war in Ukraine and hawkish central banks battered equity returns this year.
Last year, a similar survey predicted that aggressive policy tightening by central banks would be the biggest threat to stocks in 2022.
Here are the main points of the survey in six charts. For more on the full details of the survey, click here.
Modest Gain
Those who expect global shares to rise see an average 10% gain for 2023. That is in line with the average historical return of the MSCI All-Country World Index, yet looks modest given previous rebounds such as 2009 or 2019 where equities gained more than 30% and 20% respectively.
Investors remain cautious for the start of the year and predict that stock market gains will be skewed to the second half of 2023. When it comes to specific sectors, respondents generally favored companies that can defend earnings through an economic downturn. Dividend payers and insurance, health care and low volatility stocks were among their picks.
Biggest Risks
The biggest threats to a potential recovery are somewhat interlinked, with stubbornly high inflation or a deep recession ranking high on investors’ watch list, cited by 48% and 45% of participants, respectively.
Clues about the path forward might came as early as next week where a frenzy of headline risks are awaiting investors, including US consumer-price data for November as well as rate decisions and commentary from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Read more: Stress Creeps In Again on Stock Market as Fed, CPI Data Loom
Tech Rebound
After being hammered this year as interest rates climbed, US technology stocks may also come back in favor, according to the survey. More than half of respondents said they’d buy the sector.
Those in favor note valuations are relatively cheap despite the recent rally and bond yields are expected to fall next year. Yet sentiment is shifting away from a broad “buy growth” approach as many participants suggest being very selective when going back into the segment, putting money only on those companies that have established business models and resilient financials even in an economic downturn.
China Opportunity
Some 60% of the investors are bullish on China, particularly as it moves away from Covid zero. A slump earlier this year has put valuations well below their 20-year average, making them more attractive compared with US or European peers.
Political and regulatory risks are too big for those advising to stay away from the region. And similarly to big tech, the bulls suggest being very selective, when it comes to picking stocks.
The Fuel
For fund managers, better news on inflation and growth could be catalysts for a stronger performance. Almost 70% of respondents said they were the main potential positive factors. They also cited a full China reopening and a ceasefire in Ukraine as upside triggers.
The emphasis on inflation and growth as the make-or-break elements is in line with the findings of Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager survey. It showed recession expectations were at the highest since April 2020, while a “stagflation” scenario of low growth and high inflation was “overwhelmingly” the consensus view.
Contrarian View
The constructive view of money managers is at odds with what Wall Street is predicting. In separate Bloomberg surveys of strategists, gains of less than 2% for Europe and a meager 1% for the US stock market are forecast.
Central banks’ aggressive monetary policy, leading to a weakening of global growth momentum in the first half of 2023, is one of the main arguments cited by strategists for anticipating an essentially flat stock market next year. However, they foresee the impact on equities will be partly offset by a decline in real bond yields.
Read more: Burned Stock Pundits Ditch Two Decades of Unbroken Bullishness
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
Airbus Is Coming for Boeing’s 737
Some Bosses Embrace Work From Home to Keep Wages Down
The US’s New Approach to Venezuela Is Starting to Bear Fruit
China Is the Wild Card for Global Inflation in 2023
The Cult of the Retail Trader Has Fizzled
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
"The talk is… going to be when are we going to decrease the rate? That may come as early as the spring," Jeremy Siegel told CNBC.
U.S. producer prices increased a bit more than expected in November, but the underlying trend in inflation is moderating, which could allow the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of interest rate hikes next week. Data for October was revised higher to show the PPI gaining 0.3% instead of 0.2% as previously reported. In the 12 months through November, the PPI increased 7.4% after advancing 8.1% in October.
Getty ImagesActor Gary Friedkin, known for his roles in Garry Marshall films as well as a three-episode arc in Happy Days, has died from COVID-19 complications.Friedkin died at a hospice care facility in his native Youngstown, Ohio, on Dec. 2, according to an obituary in the Tribune Chronicle. His death came after “a difficult three-and-a-half weeks” in the ICU. He was 70 years old.The actor, who was four feet tall and an active member of the organization Little People of America, was known for
(Bloomberg) — Global central banks are pausing or nearing the end of their interest-rate hiking cycles as inflation shows signs of slowing and recession concerns mount.Most Read from BloombergPutin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to StrategyHarry and Meghan Throw the Gauntlet to William and KateThe Harry and Meghan Show Is a Royal KnockoutCaroline Ellison Hires SEC’s Former Top Crypto Cop for FTX probeTwitter Sued for Refusing to Pay for Two Private Jet ChartersPolicymakers in Canada a
Ruth Madoc, star of sitcom Hi-de-Hi!, has died, aged 79.The news was confirmed by her agent days after the actor went to hospital for surgery following a fall earlier this week.Phil Belfield, from talent agency Belfield & Ward Ltd, said: “It is with much sadness that we have to announce the death of our dear and much loved client Ruth Madoc.”
FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried is getting criticism from the likes of Bill Ackman over his actions at the collapsed crypto exchange. Here's what 8 influential figures have said.
Doria Ragland refused to interact with the paparazzi after Meghan Markle started dating Prince Harry, according to "Harry & Meghan."
Stephen Wright is expecting a recession in 2023. And he’s getting ready by making a list of stocks to buy that are likely to be cheap in an economic downturn. The post My top 5 stocks to buy in 2023 and beyond appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
The England manager will ‘take time’ to reflect on the World Cup after Southgate said the Three Lions lost a thrilling quarter-final to defending champions France in Qatar
Communication Workers Union staff have staged a series of walkouts over the increasingly bitter row.
Rescuers in Jersey were searching through the night for any survivors from a "devastating" explosion Saturday that flattened a low-rise apartment block, killing at least three people. Security camera footage showed a fireball engulfing the three-storey building in the Channel island's port capital St Helier, leaving several people missing. The blast struck at around 4:00 am (0400 GMT), hours after reports of a gas leak at the bayside block. "The area is being lit and teams will be working tonight, all night, and we will not stop for the time being," chief fire officer Paul Brown told reporters. Chief Minister Kristina Moore confirmed at least three fatalities, and noted that Jersey was already reeling from the sinking of a fishing boat this week in which three men were lost. Nearby resident Anthony Abbott said his flat's windows were smashed inward by the blast wave, "and there was fire everywhere outside". "It was very, very distressing," he told the BBC. "I'm a little bit shocked, but we are lucky we're OK." Jersey's gas supplier, Island Energy, said it was working with the fire service to understand what happened. The fire was put out but emergency services were conducting "significant work" at the scene, and the rescue operation could take days, police said. – Tragic week – Jersey police chief Robin Smith likened the remains of the apartment building to a "pancake". "There is also damage to a nearby building as well, another block of flats that the fire service needs to make safe," he said. "It is a pretty devastating scene, I regret to say." Smith said earlier Saturday that "around a dozen" people were missing, "but you will appreciate also that number could fluctuate". Two others were taken to hospital but later discharged. Specialist equipment was mobilised to find anyone trapped in the rubble, according to the police, helped by an urban search-and-rescue team from southern England. The chief minister expressed condolences and said residents displaced by the blast were being found somewhere to stay. "This is going to take some days and we will keep everyone updated and fully informed, and we will do our very best to ensure everybody is properly looked after," Moore said. The incident caps a tragic week for Jersey, a British Crown dependency not part of the United Kingdom, whose economy relies on banking, tourism and fishing. The coastguard Friday abandoned a search for three Jersey fishermen missing for nearly 36 hours after their wooden boat hit a cargo ship and sank. The freighter is owned by Condor Ferries, whose Jersey offices lie near the destroyed apartment block. "We must call on the collective strength of the island community," Moore said. jit/jj
Jon Smith reviews two growth stocks with a large presence in the UK that he thinks could struggle with the recession looming. The post 2 growth stocks I wouldn’t touch with a barge pole appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
A band that was incredibly popular in Swindon during the 60s and 70s is reuniting almost 50 years later for a gig in honour of their missing member.
Olivier Giroud scored in the 78th minute at Al Bayt Stadium to keep France on course to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to win back-to-back World Cups.
Gareth Southgate’s side were beaten 2-1 by France.
A prominent Russian opposition figure was on Friday sentenced to 8 1/2 years in prison after being convicted on charges stemming from his criticism of the Kremlin’s action in Ukraine. The sentence handed to Ilya Yashin, one of the few Kremlin critics to have stayed in Russia, offered the latest indication of an intensified crackdown on dissent by Russian authorities.International human rights groups have denounced it as a mockery of justice and called for Yashin's immediate release.“With that hy
Ben McPoland explores how a £5,000 investment in Rio Tinto shares during the global financial crisis would be faring today. The post If I’d invested £5,000 in Rio Tinto shares in 2008, I’d have this much now appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
A loophole in British sanctions on Russian oil allows imports through the backdoor, campaigners have claimed, threatening to undermine efforts to squeeze the Kremlin’s vast fossil fuel revenues.
There was always a chance that England would be undone by a Kylian Mbappe confidence trick. The one they fell for was all misdirection. France have bigger stars now than Antoine Griezmann, but his dangers were hiding in plain sight at Al Bayt.
Our writer explains the steps he would take to try and generate £1,600 in dividends each year by investing £20,000 in a Stocks and Shares ISA. The post How I’d invest a £20,000 Stocks and Shares ISA to target an 8% dividend yield appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
Trending now
